BEV Scenario
  • The BEV Scenario starts with the same assumptions as the FCEV scenario, with the bulk of the vehicles from previous years being gasoline ICVs, gasoline HEVs, gasoline PHEVs, and biofuel PHEVs. In other words, we start with the biofuel PHEV scenario, and add BEVs instead of FCEVs.
  • However, we assume here that BEV market penetration is limited to all small passenger vehicles, small vans, small SUVs and small pickup trucks, plus 50% of all midsize sedans. We assume that other vehicles are either too large or travel too far to be affordably powered by only batteries. We show in this report that these vehicles account for approximately 40% of all US light duty vehicles.  So the BEV scenario has a 40% limit on BEV market penetration, while the FCEV scenario assumes no such limit, since FCEVs have already demonstrated the capability to power large SUVs (and Vision Industries of El Segundo, Cal. has even developed an 80,000 lb fuel cell Class 8 truck to haul freight around the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach)
  • As shown below, the BEV scenario assumes that BEVs are added to an existing fleet of biofuel PHEVs, gasoline PHEVs, and gasoline HEVs. Thus by the end of the century when BEV market penetration reaches its 40% limit, the other car sales are the lowest GHG emitters, and almost all non-hybrid ICV sales are phased out before 2050.


[HEV Scenario] [PHEV Scenario] [BIofuel PHEV Scenario]  [FCEV Scenario]

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