Simulation Results

Our computer simulations have shown that our four main attributes of greenhouse gas pollution, oil consumption, air pollution and total societal costs all follow the same pattern:

  • Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) make modest reductions in each attribute
  • Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) further reduce each attribute, except for GHG emissions, where PHEVs produce approximately the same GHG emissions as gasoline HEVs
  • BIomass-powered PHEVs cut pollution and societal costs even further
  • Hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) cut pollution and societal costs the most, and FCEVs are the only major option that can achieve the goal of 80% reductions in GHGs below 1990 levels
  • Battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) could reach at best a 55% reduction in GHGs later this century, far short of the 80% reduction goal; BEVs are limited to 40% market penetration since even advanced Li-ion batteries could not provide an affordable BEV with the range and fueling time demanded by consumers, including large SUVs, large vans, and large pickup trucks.
  • Hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles.  Hydrogen-powered FCEVs could achieve the 80% reduction in GHGs by the 2070 time period if most LDVs could be converted to hydrogen.

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© C. E. Thomas 2009-2013